(After each race week I’m going to be doing a race weekend review on Monday, as well as previewing every race weekend on the Thursday before. I’m so grateful to this site for giving me the chance to get these thoughts out there. Here’s the snoozefest that was Japan, chronicled.)
One of the reasons I am pro-Yuki Tsunoda being in the Red Bull seat is we desperately need a baseline against Kimi Antonelli that can tell us how good the Merc and Red Bull cars actually are. I don’t have a strong opinion yet, because it’s impossible to know. Was George’s podium in China a feat of incredible performance the likes of which we haven’t seen in ages, or a putting of putting the car where it’s supposed to be? I have no idea because Liam Lawson gave us no usable data.
The reason this matters is that, at least right now, Max and George are going to be close together a lot this season. They have seemingly similar machinery and both have put up good, error free drives in the first two races. But qualifying on Saturday reminded us, not that there was much debate, why Max is still the better driver.
George put in a great qualifying through the first two sessions, and then two corners – one in each run of Q3 – ended his chance at a front row or a top 3 finish. It’s a rare quali mistake from George, and not one that I think matters in a broader sense, but it’s still an error. And the kind of one Max doesn’t make.
Separating driver and car is always a pointless task, but one that is essential to actual analysis. It seems clear to me that George is head and shoulders above Lando despite the list of accomplishments being more tilted to Lando by virtue of having a rocketship, and I’m optimistic if Mercedes delivers a banger in 2026 George will win the championship. But this qualifying session reminded us George is a step down from Max still.
Obviously the story of the weekend is Max, but it’s much more about competence – the existence of it from Red Bull and (kind of) Ferrari, the lack of it from McLaren, and George’s Q3. This race is a good reminder of the fact that as much as it is about the cars, it’s still a championship that has to be won on track, and McLaren seem allergic to winning this.
One of the virtues of having a 2-3 grid lineup when your opponent only has one car in the Top 10 is that you can mess with him, but they didn’t. There was no effort made to split strategies, no effort to mess with Max, and no creativity from McLaren.
The decision not to order Oscar ahead of Lando is defensible only if this is precedential – in other words, you two are on your own and we are running this as a 2016 Mercedes situation. But it won’t be. There’s no universe in which that’s the decision they made, and that they’ll stick to. McLaren are fundamentally an unserious team. The reason Lewis’ famous swap offer in 2017 is remembered – the “if I don’t get VettelI I’ll swap back” in Hungary – is because Lewis knew that the only way Mercedes would even consider such a deal was if he offered, such was the culture of Mercedes. The problem for McLaren is they have no such culture.
Would a swap won them the race? No idea, and my guess is probably not, given the fact that Max is a bitch and a half to overtake at the easiest of the times. But you have to try something, and letting Lando match lap times is not enough. If you want to win the title, you have to take big gambles – and hope they work. Playing it safe is a great way to guarantee 2 and 3 in the Drivers and 1st in the Constructors, especially if Red Bull have any form of pace coming in the form of upgrades. Hell, Mercedes aren’t that far away either, with upgrades coming in Bahrain apparently.
The problem for McLaren is that they’re clearly a house divided – they cannot stand to make any decision in any serious way, because it is clear whether they admit it or not there’s a strong Lando faction and a strong Oscar one. But, far more concerningly, it’s also a house stuck in indecision, a pathetic state of affairs for what needs to be a decisive sport. There’s no solution to their problem beyond making a decision, and making that decision clear and indisputable. The problem is they’ll never do it.
I understand why the institutional stasis that McLaren occupy has been allowed to happen but this weekend must be the end of it. If they do not take themselves seriously then it is time for the rest of us to act accordingly. The problem with McLaren is that they think not doing anything somehow absolves them from any responsibility, as if they didn’t make a decision. They did – the status quo is a decision, one they actively made. That they’re more concerned with managing egos and not winning races is a bigger problem.
The problem with all McLaren and Lando discourse is exactly the same as it was when I made my debut for this site last year – there is no standard applied to McLaren and to Lando because people don’t actually think they’re a serious outfit. The laissez faire attitude and the lack of serious scrutiny and the excuse making that never comes when it’s Charles or Ferrari is a function of the fact that fundamentally more is expected from Charles and Ferrari than from Lando and McLaren. If I were a Lando fan I’d be pissed every time people admit, albeit indirectly, that they don’t rate my driver. And yet.
There’s little to be said about Ferrari’s race – they have a mediocre car right now and did good enough. Let’s see how they get on in Bahrain, where Charles has a better track record than Suzuka. (As much as this website’s proprietor jokes I have an anti-Lewis agenda, I’m giving him till Miami to adjust to the car before I actually make any assessments.)
Best Of The Rest
I must confess I get why Alex’s trigger is so quick on losing it at Williams’ strategy team, but he probably should calm down for his own sanity. This is two straight races where they have kept Alex out longer than others, given him a tyre offset for the second stint, and he’s taken advantage. I don’t get the need for the anger.
That said, it’s time to start the Carlos Sainz discourse. Yes, I know I’m giving Lewis to Miami, but he’s won a sprint race already from sprint pole so he gets more time. Sainz? He’s fucking nowhere, man. For all the talk of his postseason test times and the fact that he was hyped so much, this is a horrendous start.
It’s entirely possible we look back at this as some sort of rocky start to a beautiful partnership, but it is notable that at no point did Mercedes or Red Bull even seriously consider Sainz. Yes, Jos and Carlos Sainz Sr. hate each other, but do you think Horner would have let that get in the way if Sainz was a true elite talent? Of course not. Do you think Toto would have let the prospect of Kimi get in the way if Charles was the one fired? Of course not. Don’t be dumb.
Sainz got incredibly lucky at Ferrari that he managed to capitalize on 4 of his rare spike weekends as wins. In Singapore, Max couldn’t get himself around the car properly and Charles’ race was sacrificed for him. In Australia, he only won because Max DNF’d and Charles was told to build a gap. In Mexico, he won on fair pace, and at Silverstone he was gifted the win through a combination of Max damage and Ferrari fuckup. He was reliably slower than Leclerc most weeks.
Despite the win total, he’s just clearly not the driver his fans and the media want him to be. If he was, Kimi would be at Williams, Sainz would be at Mercedes, and George Russell would be under immense pressure. That’s not the case because Toto was smart enough to see Sainz for what he is – good, not great. And right now, he’s not even good.
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I continue to be befuddled by what Liam Lawson is, because he just got thoroughly beaten by Isack Hadjar. Is he even worth a seat on the grid? I’m befuddled by him.
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There is a real part of me that thinks Ollie Bearman will be the next Ferrari WDC. I don’t want him to be the next one – I want it to be Charles – but I’m captivated by Bearman. I did a hater routine after Saudi last year – some version of “is a P7 in a Ferrari that good?” – but he’s legit a star. A star!
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Can we just skip to the part where Doohan gets fired for Franco please? I want a better test for Gasly so I can know whether the Alpine is shit or whether Pierre is underperforming the potential of it.
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